Even with Elena Delle Donne rejoining the fold for the Washington Mystics against a scuffling Atlanta Dream, we’re not banking on a high-octane performance on either side. The Mystics play tight on the defensive side and we’re targeting the Under.
The Washington Mystics are back home and hoping to pick up steam after a three-game road trip out west last week.
The Mystics have enjoyed a few days off since stunning Las Vegas on the weekend and now host a stumbling Atlanta Dream team that has been plagued by injuries. Atlanta has only one win in its last seven games and has already fallen twice to Washington in 2022, including a 20-point beating the last time it was in DC.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Mystics on June 28.
Dream vs Mystics odds
Washington opened as an 8.5-point home favorite and has since dipped as low as -7.5. The total hit the board at 155.5 points and has slimmed to 153.5 before coming back to 154.5 at some books.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Dream vs Mystics predictions
Predictions made on 6/28/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dream vs Mystics info
• Location: Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washing, DC
• Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Dream vs Mystics betting preview
Dream: Nia Coffey F (Out), Tiffany Hayes G (Out), Kia Vaughn C (Questionable)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 20-9 in the Dream’s last 29 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mystics.
Dream vs Mystics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Mystics get a brief stay in the nation’s capital before hitting the road to open July. This matchup with the Dream is followed by four full days off before four contests in 12 days away from DC. Washington has an opportunity to build on a big win in Las Vegas this past weekend and continues to work star Elena Delle Donne back into MVP form.
After coming in and out of the lineup due to a surgically repaired back for the good part of the 2022 season, Delle Donne appears to be getting stronger. She logged major minutes on the Mystics’ three-game road swing, including 36 minutes and 19 points in the OT win over the Aces.
While her offensive contributions are huge — and much needed for a hot-and-cold attack — Washington is a different team defensively with EDD on the floor. The 6-foot-5 forward boasts the 11th highest PIE (Player Impact Estimate) according to WNBA.com (14.8) and the team is 9-4 SU and ATS with Delle Donne on the floor versus 3-5 SU/ATS without her.
She scored 15 points and grabbed six rebounds in 25 minutes in the Mystics’ 70-50 home victory over Atlanta on May 24, and with EDD in the lineup, Washington ranks among the league’s elite: a hump Atlanta just hasn’t been able to get over.
The Dream have eight wins on the year, but those W’s came against the likes of Dallas (twice), Los Angeles, Phoenix, Minnesota, and Indiana — which was on the losing end of three of those Dream winners. None of those opponents currently own a record of .500 or better and they have a combined count of 34-62 SU. Atlanta is just 2-8 ATS in their 10 losses so far.
The Dream do get some important players off the injury report tonight, with Erica Wheeler and Kristy Wallace expected to play and Kia Vaughn possibly coming out of COVID protocols.
That will help Atlanta deal with the Mystics’ improving depth but they’ll have a tough time cracking an EDD-anchored defense that checked Atlanta to 38.5% shooting (just 26.7% from 3-point) and forced 40 total turnovers in their two meetings this year.
This one could be uncomfortable for spread bettors in the final minutes — regardless of what team you like — but we’ll lean Mystics knowing they need these home wins before another road trip this weekend.
Prediction: Mystics -8 (-110 at bet365)
Covers basketball betting analysis
Washington’s offense is still rounding into form, in part to the in-and-out play of Delle Donne, who commands the ball when she’s in but leaves a larger hole when she’s out.
The Mystics wrapped their three-game road swing with an advanced offensive rating of just 96.8 (vs. 99.5 on the season) and scored 82, 71, and 80 points in regulation in those contests.
A few days off to rest and practice should help with the offensive chemistry but Washington will still lean into its defense to get the job done. As will Atlanta, which ranks near the bottom of the WNBA in production but doesn’t give anything away on the other end of the floor.
The Dream protect the rim and push defenders to the outside, giving up a league-low 29 points in the paint per game and less than 15 points off turnovers an outing. They do show cracks against top-tier teams, but the Mystics offense is still a work in progress.
This is a contrast in pace, with Atlanta running out the second-highest tempo and Washington playing the most plodding pace in the league, which in turn backs up its defense.
In the two meetings this season, the Mystics have dragged the up-tempo Dream into the mud, with those clashes pumping out a painfully-slow pace rating of just 91.8 and both games staying below the total.
Prediction: Under 154.5 (-110 at bet365)
The return of Vaughn and Wheeler is huge for the Atlanta defense as those two rank No. 3 and No. 6 respectively in individual advanced defensive rating across the league.
The Dream plug up the paint and check foes to just 50.4% shooting within eight feet of the basket. Atlanta pushes opponents to shoot the bulk of their shots from mid-range or beyond the arc and Washington isn’t the best shooting team from 16 feet and beyond.
The familiar surrounding could help the Mystics find their touch but they made only 41.8% of their looks during that three-game road trip and rank out middle of the league from distance, knocking down an average of fewer than eight triples per contest.
The first two matchups between these clubs played Under last month, most notably that 70-50 Washington win with Delle Donne in the lineup, which left plenty of headroom for Under bettors versus a total of 156.5 points.
Pick: Under 154.5 (-110 bet365)
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