Liberty vs Dream WNBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

After a sluggish start to the season, the Liberty have found their stride. We like New York tonight as slight dogs in Atlanta tonight in the lone Friday night WNBA game. Find out more by reading our Liberty vs. Dream betting picks.

The WNBA has only one game this Friday night, pitting two middle-of-the-pack Eastern foes against each other. As we hit the midway point on the regular season, games like this have more meaning than one might think just looking at the surface.

The New York Liberty are barely hanging on to a playoff spot while the Atlanta Dream are clinging to the chances of hosting a Round 1 game. A one-game slate on a weekend evening might not catch your attention, but it has plenty at stake.

Here are our WNBA picks and predictions for the Liberty at the Dream on June 24, with tip-off set for 7:30 ET.

Liberty vs Dream odds

The Dream opened as a slim one-point favorite at most books early Friday morning, a line that momentarily touched -1.5 during the mid-morning but has largely remained stationary. The total saw similarly little movement, opening at 156.5 and ticking upward to 157.0 by lunchtime.

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Liberty vs Dream predictions

Predictions made on 6/24/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Liberty vs Dream info

Location: Gateway Center Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date: Friday, June 24, 2022
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network, Bally Sports South

Liberty vs Dream betting preview

Key injuries

Liberty: Han Xu C (Probable), Rebecca Allen G (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby (Out), Betnijah Laney (Out).
Dream: Erica Wheeler G (Questionable), Kristy Wallace G (Questionable), Nia Coffey F (Questionable), Kia Vaughn C (Out), Tiffany Hayes G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Liberty are 5-1 ATS over their last six games, including going 3-1 in games they were an underdog, winning two of them outright. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Dream.

Liberty vs Dream picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Liberty may only have a 7-10 record on the year, but they have been surging after early-year struggles. New York opened the season at 1-7, with the lone victory coming in the season opener.

Twice, the Liberty fell short in overtime during that span. When New York finally started winning right as the calendar flipped to June, it didn’t stop. Going 6-3 in the month undersells this resurgence, as one of the losses was by a mere bucket and three of the wins came as an underdog.

Not coincidentally, a piece of this New York charge has come from Marine Johannès’ return. After missing the first 12 games of the season, the guard has made her impact felt in the last five, a stretch in which the Liberty have gone 4-1 ATS and sprung two money line upsets.

Johannès is averaging 10.6 points on 51.3 percent shooting, including hitting 42.3 percent of her threes. Her offensive rating is 11th in the league, albeit a small sample size. New York is not being given proper credit for its surge this month, and with Johannès in the fold, that statement may be even more true.

Prediction: Liberty +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Covers basketball betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

Along with Johannès’ offensive push, the Liberty’s defense has excelled in the last five games. In that sample size, New York’s defensive rating ranks third in the league.

In contrast, the Dream’s has fallen off, falling to No. 10 from a previous season-long rank of No. 1. That stretch was largely a road trip for Atlanta, but there is little excuse for giving up 105 and then 106 points in back-to-back games. Whatever trend has snapped with the Dream, Johannès & Co. seem ripe to expose it further.

Prediction: Over 156.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

Why pick a one-point underdog when a +102 money line is available? Protecting against a one-point loss is not worth the 12-cent payout boost in picking the upset.

Let’s put it this way: New York has not lost by exactly one point this season. In games where the Liberty were a one-or two-possession underdog and lost, the average margin of defeat has been 16 points. Meanwhile, New York has won two games this year when facing a similar spread like tonight’s.

Thus, there is value in betting on the upset.

Pick: Liberty moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)

WNBA parlays

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